J.P. Morgan note puts Nvidia at 39% of future frontier-lab compute deals, custom chips at 46%

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Eye on the Market note, dated November 14, puts a striking number in front of anyone who assumes Nvidia still owns the frontier: the company holds just 39% of frontier AI labs' future compute agreements. Michael Cembalest's note contrasts that with the 80%-plus market share Nvidia carried from 2023 through 2025, a gap FourWeekMBA summarized on November 15 as "Nvidia 39%, custom chips 46%."

The chart breaks up the rest of the bar into Broadcom custom chips at 24%, Google TPUs at 16%, AMD GPUs at 15% and Amazon Trainium at 6%. Add Broadcom, Google and Amazon together and custom silicon comes to 46%, seven points more than Nvidia — arithmetic FourWeekMBA performed on the chart rather than a figure the note states outright.

The unit matters as much as the split. The chart is measured in gigawatts, and its single bar reads at roughly 41 GW, so Nvidia's 39% works out to about 16 GW on an approximate chart read. The note also says Nvidia earned 83% of AI chip revenues from 2023 to 2025, at gross margins of 75% and operating margins of 66%.

The explanation offered is supplier diversification. A box beside the chart notes that of the seven large buyers of accelerators — five hyperscalers and two frontier labs — only SpaceX is not trying to build its own silicon.

Read the source for what it is. The note is Cembalest's own view, and its disclaimer says it "in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research." The 39% and 46% figures are best treated as a directional signal about procurement, not as an audited share count.

The structural point is the one that matters. For three years a frontier lab's compute budget was close to a single Nvidia revenue line; now the same budget is split across GPUs, TPUs, Trainium and Broadcom ASICs. Buyers get leverage and redundancy, while Nvidia has to keep justifying its premium through interconnect, rack-scale systems and software, because scarcity at the chip level is fading.

What to watch is concrete: how the custom-versus-commercial split moves in the next round of capex guidance, whether Google and Amazon sell TPU and Trainium capacity more aggressively to outside customers, and whether Broadcom's custom ASIC backlog converts into shipped racks. Share shifts show up in analyst charts first and on earnings calls later.